Australian Property Market Update October 2025

0:00Welcome to the deep dive. We’ve got the

0:01sources in front of us. The uh the very

0:04latest Australian housing chart pack.

0:06This is fresh data October 2025. Yeah.

0:09And our job as always is to cut through

0:11it all and really map out for you what’s

0:13happening with Australian housing right

0:15now. We’re not just, you know, reading

0:16out numbers. We want to get under the

0:17skin of it, figure out where the

0:19momentum is really building and what’s

0:21actually driving it. And maybe the best

0:23place to start is with the sheer scale.

0:25We have to talk about the biggest

0:26number, don’t we?

0:27We really do. It’s uh it’s almost hard

0:29to comprehend sometimes. The total value

0:32of Australian residential real estate,

0:34it’s sitting at a massive 11.8 trillion.

0:37Wow. Okay, just let that sink in for

0:38you. 11.8 trillion. I mean, just to give

0:41you some context, that absolutely dwarfs

0:43Australian superanuation, that’s about

0:45$4.3 trillion.

0:46That’s right. And listed stocks uh

0:48around $3.6 trillion. So, yeah, housing

0:51is just enormous in comparison.

0:53It really is the bedrock of Australian

0:54wealth, isn’t it? It’s not just another

0:56asset.

0:56No, it underpins what? over half of all

0:59household wealth. So its performance

1:01really dictates how people feel, how

1:03confident they are, policy decisions. It

1:06touches everything. Affordability

1:08obviously is key.

1:09So with that massive scale in mind,

1:12what’s the latest pulse check? Is this

1:13giant market still growing or are things

1:16starting to cool off a bit?

1:18Well, the headline is definitely

1:19continued growth. Actually, it looks

1:20like there’s renewed momentum building.

1:22We’re seeing this confluence of factors

1:24really. You’ve got um the earlier

1:26interest rate setting sort of filtering

1:28through rising incomes helping a bit

1:30with borrowing and maybe most

1:31importantly just really tight stark

1:33levels very little for sale.

1:35Okay. So renewed momentum. What does

1:37that look like in the numbers?

1:38The core finding I’d say is the

1:40quarterly growth. National dwelling

1:41values jumped 2.2% over the 3 months to

1:44September. And what’s really telling is

1:47that 2.2% well it matches the biggest

1:49quarterly jump we’ve seen since back in

1:51May 2024. So the market’s definitely

1:54kicked up a gear again,

1:55right? So it’s accelerating.

1:56Yeah. And

1:56that acceleration must be pushing up the

1:58annual trend, too.

2:00Exactly. The annual growth figure is now

2:01running at 4.8% over the 12 months to

2:04September. So that upward trend is

2:06definitely firming up.

2:07Okay. 4.8% annual growth, 2.2%

2:10quarterly. But growth like this is never

2:12spread evenly, is it? Where’s the heat

2:14concentrated? Is it top-end mansions,

2:17entry-level apartments, or somewhere

2:19else?

2:19Yeah, good question. If you’re looking

2:21for sort of the engine room of this

2:24current growth phase,

2:25it seems to be right in the middle. The

2:27strongest quarterly pace, which was

2:28$2.5%, is really focused on that middle

2:31band of the market. We’re talking

2:32dwellings valued between, say, $648,000

2:35and $1.2 million nationally.

2:37Huh, that’s interesting. So maybe not

2:39the super wealthy pushing prices up or

2:41just first home buyers. It’s that middle

2:43bracket. Is that maybe the group getting

2:45the most benefit from, you know,

2:46borrowing capacity improving slightly,

2:49meeting that tight supply you mentioned?

2:50I think that’s a big part of it. Yeah,

2:52that price range often captures

2:53families, people looking to upgrade.

2:55They’ve likely been waiting, watching

2:57the market, and now with maybe a bit

3:00more borrowing power, meeting very few

3:02available homes in that bracket. You get

3:04that intense competition pushing values

3:06up, scarcity is really biting there.

3:09Makes sense. And what about the classic

3:11split capitals versus regions? Are the

3:14big cities still outperforming?

3:16They are, but maybe not by as much as

3:18you’d think. Over those 3 months to

3:19September, the combined capitals grew by

3:212.3%. The combined regionals were

3:24slightly behind at 1.8%. So capital’s

3:26still leading, but regionals holding up

3:28pretty well, too.

3:29And all this growth, this momentum,

3:31it happened even though the RBA kept the

3:33cash rate on hold at 3.6% in September.

3:36Right.

3:36That’s right. They held steady. Now,

3:38that decision itself wasn’t a huge

3:40surprise. It was widely expected. But

3:42what was notable was the language around

3:43it. The RBA definitely sounded a bit

3:45more uh hawkish, hinting that maybe

3:48rates could still go up or at least stay

3:50high for longer.

3:51Yeah, usually that kind of talk might

3:53cool things down a bit, make buyers

3:55nervous. So, why did the housing market

3:57seem to just shrug it off?

4:00Well, I think it comes back to that

4:01supply constraint we keep mentioning.

4:03It’s just incredibly powerful right now.

4:05buyers, especially maybe investors or

4:07owner occupiers who already have finance

4:09sorted, they see the fundamental

4:11problem, not enough homes. So, yes,

4:14maybe rates could rise further. That’s a

4:15risk. But the risk of missing out now

4:18when stock is so low probably feels more

4:20immediate, more tangible. The physical

4:22lack of housing is for now seemingly

4:25overriding the RBA’s signals.

4:27That’s a really key point. Supply

4:28basically trumps sentiment, at least for

4:30now. Okay, let’s zoom in because the

4:32national picture really breaks down when

4:34you look city by city, doesn’t it? Some

4:36huge differences in those quarterly

4:37figures. I mean, look at the front

4:38runners. Just incredible growth. Darwin

4:40up a massive 5.9% in just 3 months.

4:43Yeah, Darwin’s been exceptionally

4:45strong.

4:45And then Perth also flying high at 4.0%

4:48and Brisbane still very strong at 3.5%.

4:51These seem to be the real hot spots.

4:53Definitely the leaders right now. But

4:54then you contrast that with the other

4:56end of the scale. Melbourne only managed

4:581.0% 0% growth in the quarter and Hobart

5:01barely moved just.1%. So huge divergence

5:05there. You really see local factors at

5:07play.

5:08So for those booming cities like Perth

5:10and Darwin, are they now pushing into

5:12new record territory or just making up

5:15lost ground?

5:16Good question. For most of the country,

5:18it’s actually record highs. Sydney,

5:20Brisbane, Adelaide, Perth, and Darwin.

5:22Their dwelling values are all now above

5:24their previous picks from 2022. They’ve

5:26recovered and pushed on. Okay, so

5:28they’re in clear air. Yeah, but

5:29Melbourne and Hobart,

5:30yeah, they’re telling a different story.

5:31Melbourne is still lagging, actually

5:322.7% below its record high from way back

5:35in March 2022. Canra is similar. Still

5:38trying to recover about 4.0% below its

5:40May 2022 peak.

5:42But Hobart is the real outlier, isn’t

5:44it? Still down a huge 9.5% from its

5:46March 2022 peak. Why is it struggling so

5:50much? Was it just too overheated during

5:51the boom?

5:52I think that’s a large part of it.

5:54Hobart saw phenomenal growth during that

5:57pandemic boom, maybe pushed values

5:59beyond what local incomes could really

6:01sustain long term. So now with higher

6:04rates, the correction there is just

6:06taking longer. It shows how even in a

6:09national upswing, smaller markets can

6:11struggle with affordability and

6:13liquidity if they got overextended.

6:15And this split is even visible right

6:16down to the suburb level, isn’t it? The

6:18data showed some really extreme local

6:20movements.

6:21Absolutely. You mentioned Darwin

6:22earlier. Well, the suburbs with the

6:24highest growth recently, almost all in

6:25Darwin, places like Wangori, Durac,

6:27Molden, they were up over 18.9% just

6:31between February and September.

6:33Incredible numbers.

6:34Wow. And at the other end, where were

6:36the biggest drops?

6:37Interestingly, they were concentrated in

6:39some of those really expensive,

6:41typically blue chip suburbs in Sydney

6:43and Melbourne. So, think places like

6:44Kiraabilly or Milson’s Point in Sydney

6:46or Armadale Pron in Melbourne. Those saw

6:49the largest price drops. So that really

6:50reinforces the idea that affordability

6:53combined with that intense local

6:55scarcity in places like Darwin is

6:57driving growth in unexpected areas while

6:59the really premium maybe highly

7:01leveraged markets are still a bit

7:03sensitive

7:04precisely. It’s a fascinating micro

7:06dynamic playing out.

7:07Okay, so values are soaring in places

7:09like Darwin, but can buyers actually,

7:12you know, find anything to buy? What’s

7:14happening with sales activity?

7:15Well, overall activity is pretty solid.

7:17Nationally, we’re looking at about

7:18540,775

7:21sales annually, worth around $523.9

7:24billion. So, money is definitely

7:27changing hands. But just like the value

7:30growth, the sales volume picture varies

7:32wildly depending on where you look.

7:33Let me guess, Darwin again.

7:35You guessed it. Darwin sales volumes are

7:37up an incredible 60.1% compared to a

7:40year ago. Just shows the level of demand

7:42there.

7:4250%. Okay, that’s huge. Anywhere else

7:44seen strong sales growth.

7:45Camera is also doing well. sales up

7:4712.0% year-on-year. But then look at

7:49Sydney, the biggest market. Sales

7:50volumes there actually fell by 4.0%

7:53compared to last year,

7:54right? So that definitely confirms that

7:56shift in activity away from maybe the

7:58traditional powerhouses towards these

8:00smaller surging capitals.

8:02It certainly looks that way. Now, if we

8:04look at selling conditions like how long

8:06it takes to sell the power seems to be

8:07shifting back towards sellers, which

8:09usually points to low stock. Nationally,

8:12the median time a property spends on the

8:14market has actually crept up slightly

8:16year-on-year from 27 days to 30 days

8:19now.

8:19Okay. Slightly longer nationally.

8:21Yeah.

8:21But I bet that masks big differences.

8:23Absolutely. Back to Darwin, the median

8:26selling time there dropped

8:27significantly. It went from 51 days a

8:29year ago down to just 39 days now.

8:32That’s a massive drop. Things are

8:34selling much faster there, suggesting

8:35really strong competition among buyers.

8:37Exactly. And you see that confidence

8:39reflected in vendor discounting, too.

8:41Sellers aren’t having to drop their

8:43prices as much to get a deal done.

8:44Nationally, the average discount has

8:46shrunk a bit from 3.3% a year ago to

8:49negative 3.2% now. It’s a small change,

8:52but it shows sellers are feeling less

8:54pressure to negotiate. Demand is meeting

8:56asking prices more often.

8:58Okay, which brings us squarely to what

9:00feels like the most critical piece of

9:02this puzzle right now, supply, or rather

9:05the lack of it. How tight are listings?

9:08They are uh exceptionally tight. Let’s

9:10look at new listings first. The

9:12properties just coming onto the market.

9:14Over the four weeks leading up to early

9:15October, new listings were down 7.6%

9:18compared to the same time last year.

9:20Down 7.6% year-on-year.

9:22And maybe more importantly, they were

9:232.1% lower than the historical 5-year

9:26average for this time of year. So, fewer

9:28new properties are coming up for sale

9:29than usual. So, we’ve got rising prices,

9:31accelerating momentum, a growing

9:33population, and fewer new homes hitting

9:35the market. That sounds like a recipe

9:37for serious price pressure.

9:39It absolutely is. And it gets worse when

9:41you look at the total number of

9:42properties available for sale at any

9:44given time. Total stock levels across

9:46the country. Just 122,173

9:50properties observed for sale. That

9:51number is a huge 19.3%

9:54below the historic 5-year average for

9:56this time of year.

9:57Wow. nearly 20% below the average.

9:59That’s a massive shortfall in available

10:01homes.

10:01It is. And this isn’t just one or two

10:04cities dragging the average down. This

10:06inventory shortage is pretty much

10:08everywhere. Almost every capital city

10:10and regional market is seeing fewer

10:12total listings now compared to the

10:145-year average. The only exception seems

10:16to be regional Northern Territory.

10:18So, this chronic lack of choice for

10:21buyers,

10:22it must be feeding directly into those

10:24strong selling conditions you mentioned

10:25like auction results. Definitely auction

10:28clearance rates are a great real-time

10:30indicator of market heat. In the

10:31combined capital cities, clearance rates

10:33were averaging 69.8% in the four weeks

10:36to late September, almost 70%. That’s a

10:39strong number, showing that when

10:41properties do get listed, especially via

10:43auction, there’s often enough

10:44competition to get them sold quickly.

10:46Okay, so sales are happening, but

10:47against a backdrop of critically low

10:49supply. Let’s pivot slightly to the

10:51rental market, cuz if supply is this

10:53tight for buyers, it must be hitting

10:55renters hard, too. Oh, absolutely. The

10:57rental market squeeze is intense and

10:59unfortunately seems to be getting worse.

11:01Annual growth in rents nationally picked

11:03up again for the third month straight.

11:05It’s now running at 4.3%

11:08nationally over the year to September.

11:10And in the capitals, where the pressure

11:12is often highest,

11:13even higher there. Rents in the combined

11:15capitals are up 5.9% over the year. That

11:17pressure is just relentless for tenants.

11:19Nearly 6% annual rent growth in the

11:22capitals. Ouch. Was there any particular

11:25city where rental growth really

11:27accelerated recently?

11:28Yes, Brisbane stood out. Between the

11:30June and September quarters, the annual

11:32pace of rent growth there really jumped

11:34from 3.9% up to 5.6%. It just reflects

11:38that really strong demand story in

11:39Brisbane right now, driven by population

11:41growth, impacting both sales and

11:43rentals.

11:44So, rents are climbing steeply. What

11:45about rental yields for landlords? Are

11:47they keeping pace?

11:48Interestingly, national gross rent

11:50yields actually dipped slightly down to

11:523.65%. 65%.

11:54Oh, why is that? If rents are rising so

11:56fast,

11:56it’s simply because home values have

11:58generally been rising even faster than

12:00rents recently. So, as a percentage of

12:02the property’s value, the rent return

12:04ticked down just a tiny bit. Capital

12:06gains are still really dominating the

12:08financial returns for owners right now.

12:10Right. Okay. So, the supply crunch is

12:12hitting buyers and renters. Now, what

12:15about the future? Are we building enough

12:17homes to ease this pressure down the

12:19track? Let’s look at approvals. Ah,

12:22approvals. Well, this is where the

12:23picture gets frankly quite concerning

12:25for the longer term. New dwelling

12:28approvals, they’re consistently running

12:30below the decade average. That average

12:33is around 16,700 approvals per month.

12:36And we’re below that.

12:37Yes. And not just dipping below

12:39occasionally. We’ve been below that

12:40decade average for seven out of the last

12:42eight months this year. It’s a

12:44persistent shortfall.

12:45That sounds like we’re just not building

12:46anywhere near enough to keep up with

12:48population growth, let alone address the

12:50backlog. That’s exactly the concern. And

12:52it’s particularly bad when you look at

12:54unit approvals, apartments, town houses,

12:56the higher density stuff we really need

12:58in cities. Unit approvals actually

13:00dropped significantly in August, down

13:0210.6% in just one month. So, we’re

13:05failing to build enough overall, and

13:07we’re especially failing to build the

13:09type of housing that adds density where

13:11it’s often needed most.

13:12It really paints a picture of a

13:14structural failure on the supply side,

13:16doesn’t it? Okay, so in this

13:17environment, tight supply now, not

13:20enough being built for the future. Who’s

13:22actually managing to buy? Who’s getting

13:24the finance? Investors or first home

13:27buyers?

13:27Looking at the latest finance data,

13:29which covers the June quarter, it seems

13:30investors were really driving the

13:32increase in new home loans. The volume

13:35of new loans to investors went up 3.5%

13:37over the quarter. Compare that to owner

13:39occupiers where loan volume only

13:41rose.9%.

13:43So investors were much more active in

13:44taking out new loans during that period.

13:46They’re clearly seeing opportunity in

13:48this market momentum we’ve discussed.

13:50Yes. And that’s reflected in their

13:51overall share of borrowing too.

13:53Investors now account for 37.7%

13:56of the total value of new housing loans.

13:59That’s quite an elevated share compared

14:01to historical averages. And guess where

14:04that investor activity is most

14:05pronounced.

14:06Let me guess. WA NT Queensland. The high

14:11growth markets. spot on. That’s exactly

14:13where investors are most active

14:15proportionally. They seem to be chasing

14:17those strong capital gains and maybe

14:19lower vacancy rates in the tightest

14:21markets. They’re capitalizing on the

14:23scarcity.

14:24Okay, so investors are definitely back

14:25in the game. What about first home

14:27buyers? Are they being completely

14:29crowded out?

14:29Not entirely, actually. Their loan

14:31volumes did edge higher, too. Up 1.7%

14:34over the quarter. So, they are showing

14:35some resilience. And interestingly, the

14:37strongest gains for first home buyers

14:39were in Tasmania, up 15.4%. 4% and the

14:42Northern Territory up 13.6%.

14:45Ah, so maybe those earlier interest rate

14:47pauses gave some first home buyers just

14:49enough breathing room to get into

14:50markets like Tassy and the NT where

14:52perhaps the price points are a bit lower

14:54or maybe state government incentives are

14:56having a bigger impact.

14:57That seems plausible. Yeah, they’re

14:59finding pockets of opportunity even

15:01while investors are taking a larger

15:02slice of the overall pie nationally.

15:04Okay, so let’s try and pull this all

15:05together for you. If we synthesize this

15:07whole deep dive, what are the key

15:09takeaways? It feels like we’ve got a

15:11national market with pretty strong

15:13upward momentum, doesn’t it? Fueled

15:15mainly by that chronic lack of supply,

15:18but also helped by buyers having

15:20slightly better borrowing capacity than

15:22say a year ago. The overall price

15:24direction seems pretty clear, but and

15:26it’s a big butt, that national picture

15:29hides massive differences. Performance

15:31is incredibly localized. You’ve got

15:33places like Perth and Darwin just

15:34surging ahead. They’re clearly the hot

15:36spots right now for investors and anyone

15:38looking for growth. Meanwhile, other big

15:40markets like Melbourne, Canra, even

15:42Hobart, they’re still stuck below their

15:44old peaks from 2022, fighting to

15:46recover.

15:47That’s a great summary, and it leads us

15:48to that final maybe provocative thought

15:50for you, the listener. We’ve talked a

15:52lot about high investor activity chasing

15:54games, particularly in those tight

15:56markets. We’ve also talked about the

15:58consistent structural failure to build

16:00enough new homes, dwelling approvals

16:02running stubbornly below the decade

16:04average. So, the so what is really this.

16:07Given this ongoing failure to

16:09meaningfully address housing supply,

16:11what does that actually imply for the

16:12direction of house prices and rents as

16:14we head towards the end of 2025 and into

16:162026?

16:17Unless something changes dramatically

16:19and quickly on the supply front, a major

16:21unlocking of new dense housing. All the

16:24data we’ve looked at today suggests the

16:25forces pushing prices and rents up are

16:27likely to keep winning. That underlying

16:29scarcity combined with investor demand,

16:31it points towards continued upward

16:33pressure almost regardless of minor

16:34tweaks to interest rates or sentiment.

16:36That structural shortage is arguably the

16:38dominant story, the biggest risk and

16:40maybe the biggest opportunity in the

16:42Australian economy right

0:00Welcome to the deep dive. We’re here to

0:02extract those immediate actionable

0:03insights from well often quite dense

0:06market data. Today we are really digging

0:08into Australia’s vacant residential land

0:10market. We’re synthesizing the key

0:12trends from the sources in that

0:14September 2025 review. Our mission

0:17pretty straightforward actually. We need

0:19to get our heads around why vacant land

0:20is staying so stubbornly pricey even

0:23with all the economic pressures. And

0:25maybe more importantly figure out where

0:27things are most extreme. you know, the

0:29booming growth areas versus the spots

0:31where caution seems to be creeping in.

0:33Yeah. And if we just start with the big

0:35picture, the national context, you

0:37quickly see this isn’t resilience born

0:39from, say, optimism. It’s more like

0:41resilience born from basic math or

0:43geometry. Even the fundamental issue in

0:46Australia, and it’s been this way for a

0:47while, is this chronic structural under

0:49supply hitting persistent demand. So,

0:52what we’re really tracking here isn’t

0:53just a hot market. It’s a market defined

0:55by scarcity. And that scarcity, well,

0:57that’s the number one thing holding up

0:58these firm, often rising prices.

1:00Okay, let’s unpack that supply issue

1:02then. Because if the returns for

1:03developers look so good on paper, you’d

1:06think they’d be, I don’t know, breaking

1:07down doors to get more service lots onto

1:09the market. What’s actually stopping

1:10them,

1:11right? It’s not like they don’t want to.

1:13The barriers are systemic. It’s this

1:15tangle of planning approval processes

1:18which can be incredibly slow. Then

1:20you’ve got fragmented development

1:22systems and maybe most critically

1:24infrastructure bottlenecks. Things like

1:27water, sewer, roads. They just

1:30constantly lag behind the actual zoning

1:32and development approvals.

1:34I did see some notes in the sources

1:35about specific delays, how long

1:38developers are actually waiting for

1:39basic stuff.

1:40Exactly. Developers are reporting these

1:42extended lead times for just fundamental

1:44civil inputs. We’re talking delays in

1:47some cases of up to 6 months just for

1:50essential materials to even arrive.

1:52Six months. Wow.

1:53Yeah. And geographically this lag is

1:55really uh pronounced in southeast

1:57Queensland especially for what they call

1:59in Glogo sites those big raw chunks of

2:01land they start with.

2:02And I guess Perth too, right? Given the

2:04population boom over there.

2:05Precisely. Perth’s seeing this collision

2:07really rapid population growth hitting a

2:10serious lack of service land. And we see

2:13similar pressures building in Adelaide’s

2:15northern and southern growth areas too.

2:17Supply is just slow because the whole

2:19machine approvals infrastructure it’s

2:21running way behind the demand curve.

2:24Okay, so the supply tap is restricted.

2:26Yeah,

2:26let’s flip to the demand side. Why is

2:28the appetite from buyers still so strong

2:31even with interest rates being where

2:33they are?

2:33Well, it’s feeding on itself really.

2:35There are two huge structural drivers

2:38pushing this. Uh number one is

2:39population growth. Australia’s migration

2:41levels are still elevated, driving

2:43population growth around what, 1.7%

2:46annually. That’s a lot of people needing

2:47somewhere to live, right? And that

2:49growth immediately hits the second

2:51factor, the rental market squeeze. It is

2:53brutal out there. When you’ve got a

2:54national rental vacancy rate down around

2:561.2%, which is incredibly tight,

2:58suddenly buying land or house land

3:00package, it starts to look like the main

3:03only path to owning a home for people

3:05trying to get out of renting. And you

3:07mentioned earlier this isn’t just about

3:09those brand new estates way out in the

3:11sticks, is it?

3:12No, definitely not. Demand for infill

3:15lot, you know, sites with potential like

3:17splitter blocks in established suburbs

3:19of Brisbane, Sydney, Melbourne. That’s

3:21also intense. These sites are generally

3:23tightly held, but when they do come up,

3:25they get snapped up incredibly quickly.

3:28Shows the appetites right across the

3:29board.

3:30Okay, so here’s where the market

3:31behavior gets really interesting for me.

3:33How are developers playing this? How are

3:36they capitalizing on this scarcity

3:39everyone knows about? Are they just

3:42letting prices float up or is there more

3:44strategy involved?

3:44Oh, it’s very strategic. The scarcity

3:46premium, it’s directly feeding that

3:48sustained price growth, especially you

3:50see it in Perth, Adelaide, and

3:51Queensland.

3:52They’re using a couple of tactics.

3:54First, any lots that actually have

3:56titles registered, they sell so fast

3:58they barely hit the market essentially,

3:59right? Second, and this is really key,

4:02developers are often strategically

4:04withholding titled stock. They’re

4:06waiting until the very moment of title

4:08registration to release it.

4:09Hang on. Withholding stock. Isn’t that

4:12basically managing the supply to keep

4:14prices up? Who ends up footing the bill

4:16for that kind of engineered scarcity?

4:18Well, the buyer does. Ultimately, the

4:20market does. They time the release to

4:22capture extra price growth that might

4:24happen between, say, an initial off-

4:26plan sale and the final settlement when

4:28titles are ready. This tactic reinforces

4:30that whole perception of scarcity and

4:33crucially for them it helps keep the

4:35valuations firm or growing on their

4:37remaining undeveloped land holdings.

4:39Okay, let’s pivot and focus on Sydney

4:41because that seems like the ultimate

4:43case study of this scarcity premium

4:45playing out but across just a massive

4:47range of prices.

4:48Sydney really shows the extremes. Yeah,

4:50the new green field stuff is mostly out

4:52in the northwest and southwest

4:53corridors. Places like Boxill. If you

4:55look at a specific example, uh 21 Bford

4:58Street in Boxill, it’s a 338 square

5:01meter block. Sold for $873,500

5:05back in June 2025. Now, that’s a jump of

5:0726% over just four years. Pretty

5:09significant.

5:10But even in those growth areas, I

5:11noticed the data showed some volatility,

5:13some patchiness.

5:14It did. Yeah. If you look just nearby um

5:17five Appalite Circuit in Gables,

5:19slightly bigger block, it only saw about

5:211.5% growth over 7 months. It just shows

5:25how localized factors, maybe a specific

5:27land release nearby or a delay in local

5:29infrastructure can temporarily cool

5:32things off even when the bigger trend is

5:34upwards.

5:34Now, what about the areas driven more by

5:37I suppose relative affordability

5:39like the southwest growth area, SWGA

5:42covering Liverpool, Campbell Town Way?

5:44Yeah, the SWGA, it’s seeing pretty solid

5:46growth, maybe 5 to 10% annually. It’s

5:49heavily driven by migration, people

5:50looking for that entry point into the

5:52market. The standout example we saw was

5:54uh 15 Fog Street in Ostrol. It’s known

5:56as probably the cheapest entry suburb in

5:58that whole corridor. That particular

6:00property showed a total increase of over

6:0216% perom over four years. Quite

6:04remarkable.

6:05And then at the complete other end of

6:06the scale, the hunt for infill sites,

6:09the knockdown rebuild, the KDR market in

6:11established suburbs where finding vacant

6:13land is like finding hens teeth.

6:15Exactly. That’s where you’re really

6:16paying for potential, aren’t you?

6:18Developers are shelling out premiums,

6:20maybe 10% to 25% extra, just for sites

6:23suitable for a duplex, like uh three

6:25Vincentia Street in Marsfield. 636

6:28square meters sold for $2.89 million.

6:30That works out to over $4,500 per square

6:33meter. They’re paying that purely for

6:34the duplex potential.

6:35And that ultimate KDR success story you

6:37mentioned.

6:38Ah, yes. 34 Glover Street, North

6:39Willoughby bought for $3.55 million.

6:42They knocked down the old house, built a

6:44new luxury home, and that new place sold

6:46for $7.21 $21 million just two years

6:48later in March 2025. It just shows the

6:51value uplift possible when you build

6:53high-end product where the land itself

6:55is the main barrier to entry.

6:56And finally, that super rare piece in

6:58Kora, just pure scarcity value.

7:00Incredible example, a near 1,200 meter

7:05vacant block on Springdale Road. Killer

7:08already had DA approval, too. Sold for

7:10$8 million this year. It tells you when

7:12supply basically hits zero in a top tier

7:15established area, the price ceiling can

7:17just disappear. So if Sydney paints that

7:21picture of scarcity across different

7:23price points, Perth right now, it’s

7:25giving us the definition of explosive

7:27price growth. It’s where supply

7:28constraints have just created this

7:30runaway market.

7:31Yeah, the numbers coming out of WA have

7:33been, frankly, staggering.

7:34They really have. The median lot price

7:36in Perth jumped something like 31% over

7:38the previous year. It hit $360,000.

7:41Supply is critically low. And

7:43underpinning that, get this, 22% of the

7:46remaining undeveloped residential land

7:47is actually constrained by environmental

7:49protections. It might never get

7:50developed.

7:51And remember that infrastructure lag we

7:52talked about in Perth. It’s not

7:54theoretical. It’s a real risk. We’ve got

7:56actual reports of builders having to use

7:58generators on site because they’re

7:59waiting for estates to get hooked up to

8:01Maine’s power. That tells you just how

8:03far behind the infrastructure delivery

8:04is compared to the sales activity. And

8:06that urgency, that pressure, it’s

8:08showing up in those extreme price jump

8:10examples, isn’t it?

8:11Absolutely. Take Yep, north of Perth, 11

8:14Kani Street, 375 square meters, sold for

8:17$320,000 in March 2025. That’s a 50%

8:22increase from what it sold for just 17

8:24months earlier. 50%.

8:26Wow. Similarly, down south in Baldivas,

8:2993 Amberly Drive, 350 m, sold Feb 2025

8:34for 330,000.

8:36That was up 47% since late 2023.

8:39It’s a market running so hot that people

8:41settling on contracts signed maybe 12

8:43months prior are finding the bank

8:45valuations are coming in higher than

8:47what they agreed to pay. Instant equity.

8:49You can almost feel the relief from

8:50those buyers. But I mean, that kind of

8:52speed also suggests pretty extreme risk

8:54for anyone buying right now, doesn’t it?

8:55Oh, absolutely. It screams immediate

8:57price risk and that infrastructure risk

8:59we mentioned. Yeah, that market feels

9:00like it’s running on pure momentum and

9:02it’s chronic chronic under supply.

9:04Okay, we’ve hit demand drivers and the

9:05scarcity premium hard. But there’s the

9:07other side of the coin, cost. How are

9:09those construction cost headwinds

9:10playing out in the more let’s say price

9:12sensitive regional markets elsewhere?

9:13Ah, yes. Construction costs, they’re the

9:16big equalizer, aren’t they? And

9:17definitely the main headwind right now.

9:19If you look at Queensland, areas in

9:21Logan City like Park Ridge, Logan

9:23Reserve, they’re still holding strong.

9:25They’re getting a fair bit of help from

9:26that $30,000 Queensland First Homeowner

9:29grant. You can still get 400 square

9:31meter lots there for around $1,000 to

9:33$1,250 per square meter. The catch,

9:36though, is that rising land prices are

9:38eating into that grant’s benefit. The

9:40total house and land package cost is

9:42getting really challenging affordability

9:44wise, even with the government help,

9:46right? The grant gets absorbed. Now,

9:48Camber seem to offer a really sharp

9:50contrast in the data. Extreme volatility

9:52almost post code by post code.

9:54Yeah, very sensitive market. Camber’s

9:55established areas, the brownfield market

9:57that remain strong, high value. But the

9:59new Greenfield areas are jumpy. McNamera

10:02saw its median price jump almost 29%.

10:04But the nearby Strathner, also

10:06Greenfield, saw its median price for a

10:08standard house block fall by 26%. It

10:11just shows how quickly buyer sentiment

10:12can turn, especially when those final

10:14construction costs are this big

10:16uncertain number hanging over

10:17everything.

10:18And we’re seeing actual cooling demand

10:20in parts of regional New South Wales,

10:22too. Places like Lismore, Shaw Haven.

10:24Yep. That’s a clear sign of cost

10:26resistance kicking in. Demand has

10:28definitely softened there. Why? Because

10:31of those ongoing high construction

10:33costs. In these areas where budgets are

10:35tighter, buyers get really wary of that

10:37scenario where the total cost land plus

10:40the build ends up being more than the

10:42finished house is actually worth on the

10:43open market.

10:44And finally, let’s touch on the Northern

10:46Territory. Alice Springs seemed like a

10:48tough market. High development costs

10:50meeting maybe shallower demand.

10:52Alice Springs really highlights how hard

10:53it is to make development stack up

10:55economically sometimes. The Kilgar stage

10:572 lots, they’re priced up to 25% higher

11:00than stage one was. But despite those

11:02high entry costs, we saw one recent

11:04resale there record a 13% drop in value

11:07over about two and a half years. Went

11:08from $179,000

11:10down to $155,000.

11:13And telling detail, the NT government’s

11:16$50,000 homegrown grant. Apparently very

11:19low takeup there suggests even big

11:21subsidies are enough to bridge that

11:22total cost gap for many buyers. So,

11:24okay, pulling it all together, what does

11:26this mean for you listening in? Well,

11:27nationally, the core story seems sound

11:29great. Demand is structurally strong.

11:31Prices are firm mainly because of that

11:32supply scarcity. But the critical

11:34pressure point, the thing to watch is

11:35definitely the historically high cost of

11:37construction.

11:38Yeah, exactly. We’ve established

11:40developers are still competing hard for

11:41subdivision sites. They seem confident

11:43they can sell the lots, but that

11:45confidence relies on the final numbers

11:47working out for the buyer. If build

11:50costs, which look like they’re

11:51stabilizing maybe, but certainly not

11:53falling significantly, mean the finished

11:56home costs more than it’s worth,

11:57especially outside the premium capital

11:59city markets, well, the whole equation

12:01starts to look shaky. The long-term

12:03health here really seems to depend on

12:05fixing those infrastructure and planning

12:07log jams we started with.

12:08Absolutely. Until Australia can

12:11genuinely speed up the delivery of

12:12service lots ready to build on, that

12:14scarcity premium is likely going to

12:16continue to dominate this market. Which

12:18brings us neatly to our final

12:20provocative thought for you to chew on.

12:23Given that we’re seeing rising

12:24construction costs, visibly dampening

12:26demand in some regional areas already.

12:29And at the same time, we know developers

12:31are using tactics like withholding

12:33titled stocks specifically to push

12:35prices higher. Is there a risk the

12:37Australian land market is creating this

12:39kind of structural disconnect? a

12:41disconnect where the scarcity premium

12:42they’re cultivating ends up pricing out

12:44the very buyers, you know, first home

12:46buyers who are supposed to soak up all

12:47the supply when the titles eventually do

12:49get registered.