Australian Property Market Update November 2025

0:00Okay, let’s just dive right in. We have

0:02just seen Australian residential real

0:04estate pass an absolutely staggering

0:07number.

0:07It’s a big one.

0:08We’re talking 12 trillion dollars. It’s

0:11a figure that’s so big it almost doesn’t

0:13feel real. But we’ve got the latest data

0:16from October and November 2025. And we

0:20really need to unpack what is powering

0:22this colossal valuation.

0:24It’s so important to put that 12.0

0:26trillion figure in perspective. I mean

0:28for you the learner this is where the

0:30wealth is

0:30right

0:31that housing valuation it just dwarfs

0:33everything else. You look at Australia’s

0:34superanuation pool which is what $4.3

0:37trillion

0:38and listed stocks are even less about

0:39$3.6 trillion.

0:40Exactly. So when you hear that more than

0:42half 55.5% of all household wealth is

0:45tied up in housing. You realize this

0:47isn’t just one market among many. It’s

0:49the market. It’s the dominant factor in

0:50the country’s financial health.

0:52So our mission today is to do a deep

0:54dive into this 12 trillion giant. We’re

0:56going to track the momentum uh see where

0:58the growth is really concentrated

1:00and look at how sales have shifted.

1:01Yeah. And crucially, what is the latest

1:03from the RVA and the lending data? What

1:05does that all means for the immediate

1:07future? Let’s start with just the sheer

1:09acceleration in prices.

1:11Let’s do it.

1:11The numbers that came out for October

1:13were pretty phenomenal.

1:14What is that quarterly national dwelling

1:17value telling us? It feels like the

1:19market has found a new gear.

1:20It absolutely has. The renewed strength

1:22is what immediately stands out.

1:24Nationally, dwelling values jumped 2.8%

1:27in just 3 months.

1:28That’s a powerful number.

1:29It is. This isn’t just, you know, slow

1:31and steady growth. That’s the biggest

1:33quarterly jump we’ve seen since back in

1:35July 2023.

1:37And that July 23 figure was 3.2%. So,

1:40we’re getting right back on that serious

1:41acceleration curve.

1:43Mhm.

1:43It’s pushing annual growth to a really

1:44robust 6.1%.

1:46Mhm.

1:47And this momentum is really pulling

1:48apart the values of houses and units,

1:50isn’t it?

1:51Oh, massively. The gap is widening and

1:53it’s widening fast. House values rose uh

1:563.1% quarterly. Compare that to units at

1:582.3%.

1:59Okay. So, what does that mean in

2:00dollars?

2:01Well, that demand difference has pushed

2:03the median house premium across the

2:05capitals to around $363,000.

2:07$363,000.

2:09So, the median capital city unit is what

2:12about $728k.

2:14That premium is almost half the price of

2:16the unit itself.

2:17It’s 49.9%

2:19just shy of half. It signals a real

2:21flight to space, a flight to land,

2:23especially when you factor in the supply

2:25issues we’ll get to later.

2:26That really sets the stage. But this

2:28growth, it’s not happening everywhere

2:30equally. Which parts of the country are

2:32really driving that $12 trillion

2:34scoreboard.

2:35The growth is intensely uneven. It

2:37really points to where people are

2:39chasing affordability and where

2:41migration is having the biggest impact.

2:43If you look at the annual figures to

2:44October, the leaders are well, they’re

2:47the midsize capitals, right? Darwin is

2:49up an incredible 15.4%. Then you have

2:51Brisbane at 10.8% and Perth at 9.4%.

2:55And the most recent data, that rolling

2:5628-day growth rate to November 11th, it

2:58just reinforces that Perth is still

3:00gaining speed at 1.9%, Brisbane at 1.8%,

3:03Adelaide at 1.4%.

3:05But you have to contrast that with the

3:06two biggest cities,

3:07Sydney and Melbourne.

3:08Exactly. In that same 28 day period,

3:10they posted a much cooler.7% increase.

3:12So even with that slight cooling, Sydney

3:15is still at a record high. So are

3:17Brisbane, Adelaide, Perth, and Darwin.

3:20It’s Melbourne and CRA that are still,

3:22you know, playing catch-up.

3:23It’s a huge contrast. Melbourne is still

3:25trying to recover, sitting about 1.4%

3:28below its peak from way back in March

3:302022.

3:31And CRA is even further behind.

3:33Yeah, Cber is still 3.5% below its peak

3:36from May 2022. So while the national

3:38number looks strong, it’s really those

3:40smaller, more affordable, and frankly

3:42inventory starved markets that are doing

3:44all the heavy lifting. Okay, let’s pivot

3:46from value to velocity. How fast are

3:49these properties actually moving? Sales

3:50activity is trending up again.

3:52It is. We saw 48,764

3:54sales nationally in October. So, annual

3:57sales are up 2.5% across the country.

3:59And I saw a really critical regional

4:01breakdown there.

4:01Yes, regional sales are up 5.1%

4:04annually. That is trending much, much

4:05higher than capital city sales, which

4:07are only up 1.1%. Again, demand is

4:09shifting.

4:10But the real sign of a tight market for

4:11me is always the speed of sale. I mean,

4:13properties are flying off the shelves in

4:14less than a month.

4:15They really are. The national median

4:17days on market is just 29 days.

4:19That’s basically one pay cycle

4:21pretty much. And while it’s up just a

4:23tiny bit from Q3, the real context here

4:26is that 29 days is still a full week

4:28faster than the average over the last

4:30decade. That was 37 days. Buyers are not

4:33waiting around.

4:3429 days. For anyone who’s tried to buy

4:36recently, that sounds less like a market

4:38and more like a a high-speed auction.

4:40It’s mostly down to tight stock combined

4:43with that sustained demand. The only

4:45capital that really bucks this trend is

4:47Hobart, funnily enough.

4:49Oh, really?

4:49Yeah. The median time on market there is

4:5131 days, which is actually longer than

4:53its own 10-year benchmark of 20 days.

4:56But everywhere else, the pressure is on.

4:58And when buyers are moving that fast, it

5:00gives sellers incredible confidence. We

5:02can see that in the vendor discounting

5:03data. So for you, the learner, when we

5:05say the discount rate has fallen to its

5:07lowest level in over 3 and a half years

5:09at 3.1%.

5:11What does that actually mean?

5:12It’s a great question. It means sellers

5:14are getting almost exactly what they’re

5:16asking for. A 3.1% discount means

5:19they’re getting 96.9

5:21on every dollar of their asking price.

5:23And in the hottest markets, it’s even

5:25tighter.

5:25Oh yeah. You look at Brisbane and Perth,

5:27both are at 2.6%. Sellers there are

5:30getting 97.4 cents on the dollar. That’s

5:33near perfect pricing power. It shows

5:35extreme seller control.

5:36Which of course brings us to the

5:38listings crunch. Even with the spring

5:40selling season, stock levels are just so

5:42low.

5:43The real constraint that keeps prices up

5:45is the total stock available. Total

5:47listings nationally are severely

5:49subdued. They’re down 14.8% yearonear.

5:52And that’s nearly 20% below the 5-year

5:54average.

5:5518.3% below to be exact. It just shows

5:58that buyers are absorbing everything

6:00that comes onto the market. But here’s a

6:02question. We’ve got this solid momentum.

6:04Sales are up. Prices are at record highs

6:07in five capitals. If the money’s there,

6:10why aren’t more people listing?

6:11I think it’s largely structural. If you

6:13sell, where do you go? The next purchase

6:15is also expensive. And your financing

6:17costs are probably way higher than your

6:19current mortgage. The lack of good

6:21alternatives means people are just

6:23staying put. They’re hoarding inventory

6:25and making the shortage even worse. So

6:27that scarcity is what’s maintaining the

6:30upward pressure on that massive $12

6:32trillion valuation.

6:33It’s a huge part of it.

6:34And speaking of pressure, that scarcity

6:36is definitely translating over to the

6:38rental market. National rental growth is

6:40building again.

6:41It is. It hit 4.6% annually in October,

6:44which is the highest rate we’ve seen all

6:46year.

6:46And we’re seeing that same regional

6:48trend play out.

6:49Exactly the same trend. Regional rents

6:51are up 6.1% annually. At the median,

6:54that’s a $34 a week increase. It’s

6:57outpacing the capitals where rents

6:59lifted 4.0% or about $27 a week.

7:02So, rents are accelerating, but at the

7:04same time, we’re seeing gross rental

7:06yields compress. They’re at a 2-year

7:08low, sitting at 3.61% nationally. Why

7:12are yield shrinking if rents are going

7:13up?

7:13It’s just a matter of speed. It’s a

7:15ratio. Home values are currently

7:16increasing at 1.1% every month. That is

7:19precisely double the pace of monthly

7:21rental growth, which is only 0.5%. So,

7:24as long as values are outrunning rents,

7:26the yields will shrink.

7:28Which means for a new investor, that

7:303.61% yield, I mean, that’s almost

7:32certainly not covering your costs.

7:34Not even close. Your mortgage rates,

7:37maintenance, you’re underwater on cash

7:39flow. You’re forced to rely completely

7:41on capital gains to make the numbers

7:43work. And this all comes back to the

7:44supply hurdles,

7:45right? Dwelling approvals had a good

7:47month in September. They were up 12.0%

7:50led by a big surge in units.

7:51But one good month doesn’t fix a

7:53long-term problem. Annually, both house

7:55and unit approvals are still well below

7:57their long-term averages. We still have

8:00those persistent cost pressures and

8:01tight labor market conditions.

8:03Which brings us to the big one. This

8:05entire 12 trillion structure sits under

8:07the shadow of the RBA, and we have to

8:09talk about that unexpected inflation

8:11surge.

8:11We do. The Reserve Bank held the cash

8:13rate steady at 3.6% 6% in November. But

8:16that decision came after a real shock,

8:18the Q3 CPI surprise.

8:19Yep. The annual trimmed mean inflation

8:22jumped from 2.7% in June all the way up

8:24to 3.0%. The RBA’s own words were that

8:28it was materially higher than expected.

8:30And that 3.0% number, it just completely

8:33dashed any hope of a rate cut anytime

8:35soon. Could you just quickly explain for

8:37our listener what trimmed to mean is and

8:39why the RBA focuses on that number?

8:41Absolutely. The RBA uses it because it’s

8:43a cleaner signal. Deadline CPI has all

8:46this noisy data. You know, petrol prices

8:48bouncing around, fruit prices changing

8:49with the weather, right?

8:50The trimmed mean basically just chops

8:52off the most extreme price increases and

8:54decreases each quarter. It gives the RBA

8:56a much better look at the core

8:57underlying inflation. And seeing that

8:59core figure jump to 3.0% was a huge red

9:02flag for them.

9:03And what does that mean for the housing

9:04market now? Well, the RBA’s own

9:06forecasts now show they don’t expect

9:08core inflation to get back into that 2

9:10to 3% target range until mid 2026.

9:13Mid 2026.

9:14Yeah. So, the So, what here is pretty

9:16clear. An extended pause on rates or at

9:19least an end to the cutting cycle for a

9:22long time is going to inject a dose of

9:24cooling reality into housing demand even

9:27if supply stays critically low.

9:29Okay, so let’s shift to who is actually

9:31borrowing and leveraging into this

9:32market. New home loan commitments rose

9:352.0% in the June quarter. But if you

9:38look inside that number, it’s really a

9:40story about one specific group.

9:42It’s all about investors. They drove the

9:44increase hands down. Investor loan

9:45commitments were up 3.5% over the

9:48quarter

9:48compared to just.9% for owner occupiers.

9:51A tiny lift. Investors now make up a

9:53really elevated share of the total loan

9:55value, sitting at 37.7% nationally. And

9:58that share is even higher in those

10:00growth markets. We talked about

10:01Western Australia, Northern Territory,

10:03and Queensland. They’re chasing the

10:05capital gains.

10:06Exactly. First home buyers, on the other

10:08hand, their loan volumes edged up just

10:101.7%. They are clearly struggling to

10:13compete against this aggressive investor

10:14class.

10:15And what about the cost of borrowing?

10:17How did the market react to the idea

10:18that rates would stay higher for longer?

10:20Well, average variable rates stayed

10:22pretty steady in September, but the

10:24prospect of this longhold has pushed

10:26long-term fixed rates significantly

10:28higher. How much higher?

10:30For an owner occupier fixing for more

10:32than 3 years, it’s now 6.31%.

10:35And for an investor, it’s spiked to

10:376.92%.

10:39Wow. Almost 7% for an investor on a

10:43long-term fixed loan.

10:44Doesn’t that sort of signal a really

10:46dangerous shift towards pure short-term

10:49speculation?

10:49It absolutely raises that concern. It

10:51shows the market is pricing in a very

10:53long road before inflation is back in

10:55the box. And it aligns with another

10:57small red flag we saw. Interestonly

10:59loans reached a series high for

11:01investors in Q2.

11:02And why is that a vulnerability?

11:04Well, while it helps an investor with

11:05cash flow in the short term, a series

11:06high means a larger slice of that

11:08investor group is now completely reliant

11:10on capital growth. They’re banking on

11:12the price going up, especially before

11:13their interestonly period ends and their

11:15payments jump. It just adds another

11:17layer of structural risk.

11:19So, wrapping up our deep dive on this 12

11:21trillion market, the key tension seems

11:23to be this. You’ve got incredible

11:26momentum and a critical shortage of

11:28stock, which are both super bullish,

11:30right?

11:30But that optimism is running headfirst

11:32into a major headwind. That inflation

11:34surprise has dashed hopes for rate cuts

11:37and is pushing long-term borrowing costs

11:39way up.

11:39And that tension leads you right back to

11:41the most crucial takeaway, the

11:44distribution of that wealth. The

11:46national total has soared, but the

11:47growth has not been shared equally at

11:49all.

11:49Not at all. Western Australia,

11:51Queensland, and South Australia have all

11:53seen their share of the national market

11:55increase. We’re talking 5-year dwelling

11:57value rises of 85.0% in WA, 80.1% in

12:02Queensland, and 78.3% in SA.

12:05This it’s a staggering outperformance.

12:06But hold on. Isn’t it true that New

12:07South Wales and Victoria are just

12:09fundamentally bigger markets? Is this

12:10just a temporary catch-up, or is this a

12:12real restructuring?

12:13That is the multi-trillion dollar

12:15question. NSW and VIC have actually seen

12:18their share of the national value go

12:20down and that’s despite them building

12:22almost 60% of all new housing since

12:242020. The money and the momentum are

12:26definitively flowing to those smaller

12:28more supply constrained states. It

12:30suggests this might be structural.

12:32That shift is profound and it really

12:34leaves us with this final provocative

12:36thought for you to consider. Given that

12:38WA, QLD, and SA have captured a bigger

12:40and bigger slice of the nation’s 12

12:42trillion dollars in property wealth over

12:44the last five years, how might that

12:45regional divergence fundamentally

12:47restructure investment decisions and

12:49even migration patterns going forward,

12:52especially if lending rates stay

12:53stubbornly high and the supply crisis

12:55just continues?